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Thursday, January 14, 2010

THE CHINA STORY IS FALTERING


There's a small controversy in the world of financial gurus this week.

On one side, you have Jim Chanos, one of the world's greatest "forensic accountants." Chanos was the first guy to unravel Enron's fraudulent books... and he's made a ton of money betting against credit and spending excesses. Chanos says China's economy is a credit bubble waiting to explode (read the full story here).

On the other side, you have Jim Rogers. The legendary hedge-fund manager is one of the biggest China bulls you'll ever find. He literally wrote the book on being a bull in China, which is naturally called A Bull in China. Rogers says China bubble fears are overblown.

It's a big story with big implications. A China crash would hammer stock and commodity prices around the world. We can track this potential crash with the "Dow Industrials of China," the Shanghai Composite Index.

As you can see from today's chart, this index enjoyed a monster rally in 2009, which peaked in August. And despite the terrific growth headlines surrounding the country, the index has "bumped its head" around 3,300 three times in the past three months. If further weakness takes the index below its short-term low around 2,700, it would put the market on the side of Mr. Chanos. We'll keep you updated...

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