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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

This country is growing faster than India, China, and Brazil

Indonesia’s favorable demographics, natural resources and relatively stable political environment have set up the country for what could be a very strong decade of growth.

Indonesia’s economy doubled in the past five years.

A brutal day for the euro: Falls to lowest levels since 2008

There’s an old saying on Wall Street that stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. Boy was that true today. You might even say that some people took an even faster way down - out the window.

If you’re living in Greece, Spain or Portugal that probably sounds pretty good right about now. Today was a disastrous day on just about any level.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

THIS IS STILL OUR FAVORITE COMMODITY

We've spent most of our "ink" over the past three months detailing how the government's giant "E-Z-Credit" program is pushing up the price of nearly every asset imaginable.

This makes life difficult for the contrarian trader, who looks for cheap, beaten-down assets to buy. One of the few ideas we can provide you is (still) check out natural gas.

Natural gas is a vital fuel that heats our homes and powers electrical plants. It also trades in a ratio to its energy cousin, crude oil. Sometimes oil gets cheap relative to gas. Sometimes gas gets cheap relative to oil. Last year, due to a big glut of new gas supply, this oil/gas ratio hit an extreme "boiling point" reading of 24:1. This is a super-cheap gas reading.

Today's chart shows that, while the 24:1 reading has backed off the burner a bit, it's still at 22:1. Sure… we know natural gas supplies are high right now. But we also know buying during a glut – when you can get assets on the cheap – is the only way to make big money in the commodity markets. "Natty" is still a buy.

A frightening fact about the Greek bailout you haven't heard

Warren Mosler was kind enough to send us these excellent thoughts on the Greek bailout:

“The size Greece ‘needed’ implies the others will need numbers beyond euro zone capacity, especially as the Greek deal used up euro zone capacity.

So this means Greece is the last rescue possible- the rest are...

Saturday, May 1, 2010

CHART OF THE WEEK: LAST STOP ON THE CURRENCY TOUR

Our chart of the week is the last stop on the world currency tour. One might say, "The buck stops here." We'll say, "The BS ends here."

You see, many Americans complain about excessive war and welfare spending. But maybe 1 in 1,000 complainers stop to think about the dishonest system that enables it all – the system that allows politicians of all stripes to promise the world to ignorant voters, spend far more than we earn as a country, and devalue the savings of millions of hardworking people.

This system is paper money for which there is no gold backing. It is a system America's Founding Fathers made loud warnings against. Every instance of its use has resulted in plunder on a massive scale. A paper money system with zero gold backing allows governments to print more money to pay for every harebrained scheme imaginable… which silently dilutes the value of the money you save.

This system has caused a major devaluation in the U.S. dollar since 2002… and it's ripping apart the Euro Union as you read this. The antidote for this BS is the best form of real money humans have ever found – gold. We'll say it for the thousandth time, gold is no investment: It is money. As the dishonest system unravels… as Obama & Co promise a few more free lunches each month… gold ticks higher. It has done so for nine straight years. Below is this uptrend. It's our last stop… and it's going to continue.

China's Giant New Energy Source

In yesterday's essay, I told you about China's monstrous "Junggar" Shale Basin.

The Junggar could become one of the largest hydrocarbon deposits ever found. Even better, China has gone "oil crazy."

With around 1.3 billion citizens, China is the most populous country in the world. It owns the world's largest cash hoard… and has the world's fastest-growing large economy. This makes it desperate for deposits like the Junggar.

According to the International Energy Agency, China will be the world's largest consumer of energy by the end of this year. In one week alone last year, China spent $41 billion securing oil supplies from all over the world. All told, it imported more than $240 million worth of oil per day. And demand is only growing. A big reason is cars…

Last year, the Chinese bought 13 million new cars – more than a 50% increase over 2008 sales. This total makes it the largest car market in the world. These cars will consume lots of oil and gas.

Also consider the thousands of power-hungry factories churning out tons of steel, concrete, and glass for China's booming cities, infrastructure projects, and 10%-plus GDP growth.

Energy consumption mirrors economic growth. From 1997 to 2007, China's total energy consumption doubled from 38 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) to 76 quadrillion Btu. That's like adding the energy consumption of California every two years.

Securing sufficient, reliable energy sources is probably the single greatest factor in determining whether China continues its great rise.

This makes reliable energy sources – like coal, oil, and natural gas – the most important assets in the world… assets China will spend whatever it takes to get.

Today, China's energy budget is skewed toward coal. That fuel darkens the skies with soot and poisons China's people with real toxins. In 2008, natural gas made up just 4% of China's total energy supply. China plans to double its natural gas production at home to 5.6 trillion cubic feet in the next five years. That's an ambitious plan and will require enormous investment in the energy sector… especially in shales.

Enter this massive new shale discovery – the Junggar Basin – right within China's borders.

Yesterday, I told you the Junggar Basin was much larger than America's massive Piceance Basin. Below is a graphic of just how much larger, in square miles, the Junggar is than the Piceance:

You need to understand two things about the shale in the Junggar Basin and China in general. First, these shale plays are in their infant stages. We know there's potential, but they aren't developed.

China has historically ignored oil and gas from shale and focused on conventional sources. But its national oil companies have turned their attention to it now. PetroChina estimates the country has more than 1.6 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas in its shales – more than Russia's proven reserves in 2008. That gas will likely contribute 25% of the country's natural gas production by 2030… but that's 20 years from now.

Second, you need to know that because China has focused on conventional oil sources, it has none of the technological expertise that enabled America to massively expand its natural gas production.

China's lag in technical innovation is a particular problem when it comes to tapping shale basins like Junggar. Extracting gas from these rock formations is a high-tech proposition. It's nothing like sticking a straw in the ground in Texas and watching oil shoot out.

How much will China spend to meet its energy needs – in particular, how much will it spend on shale basins like the Junggar? We can't know for sure. It's too early in the game. But I can say that China is desperate to find more energy resources. I can say it will spend whatever it takes to get them.

Over the long term, this trend is super bullish for companies that supply technological expertise, like Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), or the companies in the PowerShares Oil Services Fund (PXJ). As China's energy needs grow, so will contracts for companies with the expertise the country lacks.

Friday, April 30, 2010

CANADA… AUSTRALIA… NOW EUROPE!

Our friend and master investor Rick Rule likes to say, "The U.S. dollar is the worst currency in the world, except for all the others." It's fashionable to point out the big problems with the paper U.S. dollar. But you should know most all countries are in the same boat… one overloaded with huge debts and unfunded liabilities… captained by smiling, well-educated pickpockets.

Case in point: the euro… the next stop on our "world currency tour."

In late December, we used Vic Sperandeo's classic 1-2-3 trend change method to nail the big decline in the euro. The euro is the paper of a tenuous currency union. Right now, it's being torn apart by the incompatible policies, work ethics, and savings rates of its members… who are as different as France is from Greece, Germany is from Italy.

Just after our December note, the euro suffered a guillotine chop from $1.50 to $1.43 (A). It then managed a flimsy relief rally into the $1.45 area (B). It suffered another value chop from $1.45 to $1.36 (C)… followed by another flimsy rally to the $1.37 level (D).

This is how bear markets conduct themselves… a stair-step series of one big step downward, a tiny step back, another big step downward, and so on. This one will end in tears.

THE MONEY MARKET

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