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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

How natural gas could plummet more than 50%

If storage does fill up—and it is on track to do that—these next five weeks or so are going to be very, very interesting. It will affect prices violently.

September is the lowest-demand month for natural gas, and it's also the lowest-demand month for power. September is maintenance season for power plants all over the country. You also have industrial demand, which is about 30% of total gas demand. Refining is a big portion of that, and September's also refining turnaround season as well. So gas demand's going to be very, very low, which is just going to exacerbate the issue.

So if it does happen, and we do run out of storage, it could drive natural gas to $1.00 or even lower. I'm not saying we're going to get there. But if all the stars line up, it could get really ugly. People look at historical charts and say, "Well, gas has never been this low, and the oil/gas ratio has never been this extreme." But it can always get more extreme.

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