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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Why you must own this "World Dominator"

When Wall Street research is good, you have to point it out because it's such a rare phenomenon. Rochdale Securities (located in Connecticut, a suburb of Wall Street) says Wal-Mart is its "highest conviction" idea. It says defensive retail stocks, like Wal-Mart, are especially attractive should the recovery prove volatile and economically sensitive stocks like mining and financials fall.

As longtime readers of Extreme Value know, Wal-Mart is an incredible business, one of the greatest ever. These days, it's in a sweet spot of its life cycle. It's a large, mature business whose competitive advantage keeps cash coming in. At the same time, lower capital expenditures and higher dividends and share repurchases are a rational expectation. Wal-Mart defended investors' capital well in 2008, as it was one of only two Dow stocks to rise last year, and the only one to produce a double-digit total return (+18%).

You might be feeling bullish now, but I promise you, with stocks trading at 26 times earnings and yielding 2%, you aren't likely to feel that way for long. World Dominating franchises like Wal-Mart are one of the few ways most investors will make any money if they're buying stocks today.

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