Canadian oil sands will probably become the No. 1 source of U.S. crude oil imports this year, and could make up more than a third of the nation’s oil and refined product imports by 2030, according to a new study.
The Role of Canadian Oil Sands in U.S. Oil Supply, a report from Cambridge, Mass.-based IHS CERA, says that in a fast-growth scenario, oil sands could represent 36% of oil imports by 2030, or 20% in a more moderate growth scenario, compared with 8% in 2009. Production of 1.35 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2009 could rise to between 3.1 mbd and 5.7 mbd by then.
Although production of oil sands has run into environmental opposition, innovation in the technology of oil sand production has been constant and there will be continued progress in cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reducing its environmental impact, the report says.